含风电场的发电系统旋转备用优化调度模型研究
任禹丞，陆彬，张馨升
东南大学 电气工程学院，江苏 南京 210096
摘 要：为研究风电的随机性和间歇性对电力系统调度计划中旋转备用的影响，建立风电预测偏差的概率密度函数，将正态分布与拉普拉斯分布联合，拟合风电预测偏差的概率分布。在处理风电预测与负荷预测的不确定性因素时，基于置信度确定了系统需要增加的旋转备用容量，并在此基础上建立旋转备用优化调度模型。通过算例仿真分析，表明置信度可作为调整系统经济性与可靠性的平衡因素，且文中模型的经济性优于传统等备用调度模型。
关键词：风电预测偏差；旋转备用；置信度；等备用；联合优化
中图分类号：TM614 文献标示号：A 文章编号：1007-3175(2013)07-0005-05
Research on Optimal Scheduling Model of Generation and Spinning Reserve with Wind Farms
REN Yu-cheng, LU Bin, ZHANG Xin-sheng
School of Electrical Engineering, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China
Abstract: In order to consider the impact on spinning reserve and generation scheduling caused by the randomness and intermittence of wind power, this paper established the probability density function of the wind power forecast error, which combined mormal distribution with Laplace distribution to simulate the probability distribution of wind power forecast error. In dealing with the uncertainty of wind power and load forecast, confidence level was used to find the added spinning reserve capacity. Based on the total spinning reserve capacity of system, the optimal scheduling model of spinning reserve was built. The analysis of examples shows that confidence level could be the adjusting element of the reliability and economy of system, and the economy function of optimal scheduling model is better than traditional equal reserve scheduling model.
Key words: wind power forecast error; spinning reserve; confidence level; equal reserve; united optimization
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